Sports Betting Odds – Know Your Odds of Winning Each Game!

Sports betting odds, the best odds out there of any gambling opportunity, guarantees you at least a 50/50 SHOT at winning every single game! Sports betting odds are definitely hands down the best way to make a stable income working from home. Now, if you are a hardcore sports fan, you may think you can win better than 50% of all your games, but if you don’t spend at least 8 hours a day analyzing all angles, trends, weather conditions, injuries, match ups, etc… that goes into choosing each and every winning game, than you should leave it up to the professionals.

There are plenty of professional handicappers out there that analyze sports betting odds at least 8 hours a day and can guarantee you a winning percentage of 80% or better. That is incredible and if they have a proven track record to back it up than you should definitely go with them. Most professional sports handicappers that are legit and have a proven track record won’t charge an arm and a leg for their picks. You can find a professional sports handicapper for a reasonable cost.

After you choose your sports handicapper, it is time to find a sports book that will give you a nice signup bonus. There are plenty of sports books out there that will give you at least a 100% first time sign up bonus such as bet Jamaica, Sportsbook, and even Bodog. These sportsbooks are legit and make depositing, wagering, and cashing out extremely easy. Almost all the sportsbooks today allow you to bet right in the comfort of your own home, on your phone if you’re on the go, or even allow you to call their 1-800 number and wager on the game that way. No matter where you are or what time it is, you can always find a way to bet on your next game when the sports betting odds are right!

Cashing out also has never been so easy! All you have to do is hit withdrawal and your funds will be immediately placed in your bank account within 3 business days! By being able to cash out so fast, you can minimize your losses and maximize your profits. If you have a professional sports handicapper that you trust, you can build a solid bankroll and eventually quit your 9-5 boring day job and become a professional sports bettor. There are plenty of people out there today that bet solely on sports as a means of income! You can be the next one. It is an incredible life to live and such an adrenaline rush, but you’re putting your money in the right hands with a proven track record of wins. Winning at least 80% of your games overtime is quite a feat. You can build a serious amount of income in as little as a few months depending on how much you’re willing to risk. Sports betting odds can be challenging, but finding someone that can beat the odds over 80% of the time is a MUST! I wish you the best of luck!

The Concept of Value in Sports Betting!

In sports betting you need to make sure that your bets (and trades) are good value in order to make a profit. If you do not do this you will still win bets but profits may be harder to achieve.

Let me explain this last statement. I actually lose more bets than I win – but the prices or odds at which I bet compensate for the losing plays.

If you bet all season long on the NY Yankees (US Baseball) or Arsenal FC (English Premiership) – to win each game – you will probably end up with a fairly good winning strike rate – but it is unlikely that you will make any money. The odds will be ‘short’ and you may do better to try and predict when these teams might falter – and bet against them at the over inflated prices being offered on the opposing teams. These opposing teams will most likely offer the value – as they are not the popular betting choice.

When we flip a coin, we know that the true chance of it turning up heads or tails is 50% or ‘evens’ (1/1).

As an example we set up a ‘coin flipping’ betting event. A neutral party begins to flip the coin. With each subsequent flip there is a definite preference for heads in the betting. The bookmaker or sportsbook takes this in his stride, he has already set the odds at 10/11 (-110 US) for either outcome which takes into account his commission. He knows that this trend is fairly usual as heads is often favored in this type of event. He decides, however, to balance his books a little by reducing his odds on heads to 5/6 and increasing tails to 1/1.

Heads is now an even shorter price and represents no value. Tails now stands at a slightly better price but still only represents the ‘true odds’ or likelihood of winning at 1/1 or 50% and so is not value.

The event continues and still the betting favors heads. Why? Well the ‘average bettor’ does not really understand ‘value’, he does not understand that heads might well be a bad bet or hold no value. He just enjoys betting and since ‘heads’ is winning – he wants to bet on heads.

The bookmaker balances his books again with a dramatic shortening of the odds for heads to 4/9 and a lengthening to 6/4 (+150 US), on tails.

At this point the professional bettor would step in and begin to place bets on tails. He knows that he has got value at 6/4 for an event where the ‘true odds’ of success are 1/1.

Mechanical Sports Betting System

If you read any book about sports betting or any kind of article about sports betting, what will you learn? Bet the underdogs! Every book, website, tout, service, you name it, are always telling you to bet the dogs. If everyone is betting the dogs, are the odds for favourites too high?

European football leagues are starting soon and to prepare myself for them, I did a small study using the data from the last two seasons from Premier League, Bundesleague, Serie A and La Liga Primera.

Premier League

Dogs 760 / 542 / 0.71 / -21.8k

Fav. 760 / 728 / 0.96 / -3.2k

Bundesleague

Dogs 612 / 578 / 0.94 / -3.4k

Fav. 612 / 563 / 0.92 / -4.9k

Serie A

Dogs 760 / 551 / 0.73 / -20.9k

Fav. 760 / 717 / 0.94 / -4.3k

La Liga Premier

Dogs 760 / 748 / 0.98 / -1.2k

Fav. 760 / 704 / 0.93 / -5.6k

How do you read that table? Let’s take Premier League for example. In the past 2 seasons you have had 760 games. If you had played every dog, your total odds would have been 542 (btw, I am using the European style odds, 1.35 etc.), return 0.71 (542/760) and for a $100 bet on every dog, you would have lost $21800.

What is interesting is that playing the favourites is a much better tactic in general, IF(!) you play every game. Only in Spain, your best tactic is to play every dog and almost break even.

Well, nobody plays every game. That would be insane. The question now is: can we use some very simple methods to find an edge from either the dogs or the favourites? I know for a fact that you can find an edge using sophisticated probability models and shopping for the best odds BUT for this article we would like to find simple methods for the average punter, who likes to bet for fun and TV-games, and not just for profit.

How about playing only home dogs, home favourites, away dogs, away favourites?

Premier League Bundesleague Serie A La Liga Premier

home fav 0.98 0.91 0.94 0.93

home dogs 0.84 0.94 0.77 1.03

away fav 0.91 0.96 0.95 0.93

away dogs 0.66 0.94 0.71 0.97

home fav 1.55 0.98 0.91 0.90 0.92

away fav 1.55 0.85 0.95 0.95 0.92

Home dogs in La Liga, home favourites under 1.55 in Serie A and away favourites under 1.55 in Premier- and Bundesleague and Serie A would have been a winning bet. Other possible good bets were home favourites in general in Premier, away fav 1.55 1.02 0.95 0.95 0.96

away fav 1.55 0.89 0.99 0.99 0.96

So, in Premier League, play every home favourite and big away favourite, dogs in Bundesleague and big away favourites, big favourites in Serie A and dogs and big away favourites in Spain, and pick the highest odd possible, and you will be just fine!

In the future I will go through more powerful, mathematical methods for finding an overlay in sports betting.

Illegal Sports Gambling Is Big Business! Will It Finally Become Legal? Supreme Court to Decide

No matter what sports season we’re in, you probably have a favorite sport you relish following. Maybe March madness college basketball, the NFL, baseball, hockey, golf, or soccer. Perhaps you would like to make a little bet, but many sports fans in the United States are leery of the legitimacy and legality of internet gambling. If you live in the United States, your legal sports betting options at brick and mortar casinos are limited to Nevada, and to some degree at Delaware racetracks.

The Supreme Court has heard arguments on a New Jersey challenge which would permit sports gambling at its casinos and racetracks. If the court rules in favor of New Jersey, Gaming experts predict that most states will jump on the bandwagon to legalization, in order to fill state coffers with tax revenue.

If you’re unfamiliar with the particulars of how to bet on sports, the following describes how it all works:

Sports Betting Jargon

Before we get into the specifics, here’s a little jargon explanation to help you understand the process:

  • Action – A term for all the betting activity that happens during an event.
  • Handle – The total amount of money wagered on events.
  • Spread – Giving one of the two teams points to even out the betting action.
  • Sports Books – Establishments that take bets on sporting events.
  • Juice – A percentage of the win taken from a bettor that won an even money bet. Sometimes called the vig, which is short for vigorish.

Types of Bets

There are many different types of bets. By far, football draws the most action with the biggest handle. The Super Bowl alone draws over $100 million in legal betting activity, and over three billion (that’s billion with a B!) illegal wagers. Now you see why states want a piece of the action.

  • Even Money Bets – Players betting on only one team to beat another. The sports book takes the juice/vig from the winning payout amount. A common vig is $11 for $10. (Bettor wages $11, wins $10.) House keeps $1. Most bets will have a point spread (line). If the player is picking the underdog, S/he will take points. If the bettor is picking the favorite, S/he is laying (giving) points.
  • Parlay Bets – Betting on multiple (two or more) teams to win. Here’s a scenario on a point spread ticket. Let’s assume that on event #1, Tampa Bay is playing at Green Bay with GB favored to win by at least 3 points. In event #2, Buffalo is playing at Miami and BUF is expected to win by at least 7 points. Your game ticket would look something like this:

Event Visitor Vs Home

1. TB GB. -3

2 BUF. -7 MIA

This means that if you bet on GB they must win by more than 3 points. A bet on BUF would require them to win by more than 7 points. By choosing the favorites you are laying (giving) points. If you were to put your money on GB and MIA, you would be taking (receiving) the points.

One way to eliminate confusion is to jot down a spread score before the games start. for example on this ticket:

The score before the game starts is:

  1. TB 3 GB 0
  2. MIA 7 BUF 0

When the games are over just give the points to the underdogs. In most jurisdictions, ties lose for the player. In other jurisdictions the prize payout for one tie is reduced to the next lowest payout factor. A common play in casinos is a four team pick for 10X the bet.Bet $10, win $100, but you can wager from two to twelve games. The more games you play, the higher the winning payouts.

  • Over/Under – One scenario is betting that the final score ill be over or under a certain number a preset number.
  • Prop Bets – A proposition bet is where you predict the outcome of a preset number of props on a single ticket. Example: Total field goals over/under 4. Total interceptions over/under 3. Total sacks over/under 2. Total receiving yards, total yards, and the list goes on and on.

If you visit Vegas or other jurisdictions that permit sports gambling, Good Luck!