Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

Sports Betting Revolution – Unlock the Spread Monopoly and Collusion

What If the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous knowledge of each others numbers!

Lets face some facts about this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online and the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or an extra $5 on the money odds. However, everybody will post their number which is the same or within a point of each other. This is the equivalent of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.

How come the Sports Betting Industry has the same price or spread on their betting board? WHY – because nobody wants to rock the boat!

What if this process of establishing a betting line was not a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups that were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.

This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists when the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers that are different from others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody wants to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so they can keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.

The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all the statistics and other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the public will place their money. It is no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the public will be evenly divided.

There are a number of times when the line is not even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. However, when the spread is minus 7 and the favorite wins by 21 points or the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.

If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they would question each others actions after doing the same thing together all these years.

For a true and balanced market to emerge in any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is very close to a more balanced betting market since the competition is against other bettors. The spread is the same but the money odds are much better with more options.

If the Sports Books in Nevada and online books decide to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they will increase their handle and be more competitive. I would install some form of Spread Betting that is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog in the same game.

The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a market share. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This would be a big gamble that could payoff and increase market share. However, it is ironical that sports books do not want to be in the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They are more concerned about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more often.

Promoting or seeing changes in any financial markets is similar to getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a lot of people and businesses. As they say “talk is cheap”. However, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it will create a more vibrant market with better options and more competition within the sports betting community.

Sports Betting – 4 Tips to Remember Forever

Sports betting is getting increasingly popular and many people are into it these days. You can enjoy sports betting even if you bet a small amount of money. Sports betting is done on basketball, baseball, football and cricket etc. just to name a few. The following are some tips of which can help you win when sports betting.

1. The Right Sports-book makes the difference

A sports-book is a place where you can bet on many sports. There are online sports-books which can be used to bet online easily and without any charge. The payouts, based on the results of betting, are made quickly in such online sports-books. Betting using the correct sports book will ease the process of betting and will also help you in winning. Choosing the right sports-book is sure to make a big difference.

2. Your Homework plays an important role

A lot of study about the game in which you are going to bet is important. Not only that, you also need to learn about the rules of the game, the team and the players involved. A good research on all aspects of the game which others neglect would make a big difference in the outcome of betting.

3. Consider the Underdog

It is a tendency of the public to bet on their favorites. Why not bet on the Underdog? Based on statistics, it is a good idea to bet on the underdog. Before that, you should have done the right research on the underdog. Finding a high-value underdog is a sure way to make big money. This could be one of the key strategies.

4. When to bet?

The time of betting also plays an important role. Choose the betting time as the one that is close to the event. This is because many unexpected changes take place in the last minute. A key player might be injured and this could affect the odds of winning if you bet earlier.

Sports Betting Strategies System, Sports Book Tips

How much would you value this gift, how much money would you invest when placing a bet? Predicting sports picks is an art that takes an incredible amount of research and analysis in order to find the winning selections. An unbelievable amount of data is collected, from statistical data to environmental data, once this precious information is gathered, it is entered into a computer software program to aid making the process of establishing the best possible game result. But that is not all, once the first part of the equation is compiled and completed (data entered in the software program), the human element is also added to the equation. The coaching staff, the location of the game being played, players injury reports are also taken under consideration and many other factors that can affect the turnout of the match or the game. Finally when the second part of the equation is added, a more precise and accurate prediction can then be taken regarding the outcome of an event.

Betting online is a very similar form of gaming or gambling, There are many risks associated with sports betting, you have to be reasonable about it, no body really knows what’s in the bag so pay the mortgage first along with the rest of your bills, a good idea is to put some money aside for the rainy days, of course everyone has to enjoy life and spend a bit of fun time following one’s passion, so with that being said, in sports betting like any type of gambling , the better has to take a chance, make his decision based on intelligent research to minimize his or her loss. Any form of gambling has its risks and probabilities. Is today your lucky day , you will never know until you try.