Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

Looking For Gambling Tips and Advice? Try These Starter Strategies

A quick look at the world of gambling tips reveals at least two general categories for guidelines and hints to help you win money online. Long-time writer and casino expert Gayle Mitchell offers a list of single-sentence tips that leave the thinking to the player. This sort of tip is self-explanatory and easy to follow.

For example, Mitchell’s workshops and seminars advise casino players to change $1, $5, $10 and $20 bills into coins, then carry the coins in a bucket so that you can judge your bankroll based on the contents of the bucket. This might be great advice for someone who finds it much too easy to snap that folding money off the roll.

If you’re an online player, there are similar gambling tips, such as setting specific limits for each session at the computer. For example, a player might have 1,000 points or dollars in the account and set a limit of losing 100, or 200. (The idea of when to quit is the subject of numerous articles, seminars and blogs.)

The other category that fits under the gambling tips umbrella would be gambling strategy. This advice may require more than few words to really be useful. But strategy tips are also crucial to success in a live casino or online.

An example: You can’t make a straight in poker without a 5 or a 10. That may seem to be simple enough as it is, but when you are looking at two hole cards and the three-card flop in Hold ‘Em this small tidbit becomes part of your overall strategy. This is also true when you are playing video poker and have to decide which cards to hold onto.

Of course, these two categories may not cover all the descriptions of casino tips, but they should be enough to start any player on the road to a little more success. Any assistance is welcome when you’re trying to win money online, right?

A Few Good Tips

On this subject, thousands of pages have been written, and thousands of words have been spoken. It’s impossible to cover even half of the great gambling tips and casino tips in one sitting. However, we’ll list a few of the best bits of gambling strategy in the interested of getting started.

In the video poker world, Mitchell suggests asking the moneychangers where casino employees play video poker. This could lead you to the best two or three machines in the building. She also urges video-poker enthusiasts to know about full pay and short pay. Full-pay machines offer maximum payback for the type of game – $99 out of each $100 that is bet, for example. Look at the payout tables and see if you are at a full-pay machine (nine coins for a full house and six for a flush.)

In video poker, you can throw away all five cards. Some experts gambling strategy say that a player will, over time, toss out all five cards once in every five or six hands.

Key gambling tips: Among the best bets in any casino, according to Mitchell, are a select number of slots and the full-pay video poker games. The best bet for blackjack is a table where the dealer has to stand on 17. According to this expert, keno, big wheel and double-zero roulette should be at the bottom of everyone’s play list. The bottom line for every player: Be an educated casino visitor. Check out the Frugal Gambling books by Jean Scott.

When it comes to true gambling strategy, the thinking cap has to go one and the player must devote a little more time to each issue. Let’s look at a great example from John Robison about slot play and the issue of playing full coins.

Key gambling tips: Robison and many have asked whether the additional risk of full-coin slots is rewarded with higher payback. Since this guy has a master’s degree in computer science and analysis, his study of more than 1,000 slot machines might be a good indicator of what to expect.

In the interest of keeping things simple for now, here are a few of his recommendations.

o With a straight multiplier machine, you are wasting time if you put more than one coin in at a time. Same goes for bonus multiplier.

o Play full coin on buy-a-pay machines, multi-line and on hybrid machines.

o Play full coin an progressives.

Among gambling tips, dozens of systems have been developed and tried as part of gambling strategy. For instance, the Martingale system included the advice to double the bet after every loss, so that with the first win the player would recover what was lost previously. This could work, but since each gambling event stands alone, it might take a minute or a lifetime to hit that first win.

Of course there are probabilities and expected value and so on, but if your chances are 1 in 10,000, you might have to wager 9,999 times to hit that one win. You may also lose 100,000 times before hitting ten in a row. The best advice among gambling tips would probably be: do what the winners do and hope for the best.

Playing Games of Craps at Digital Casino Sites

A lot of individuals out there have an appreciation for gaming, but up until the last few years, it has always been a huge hassle for many to want to pile in the vehicle and drive to the closest gambling casino, which may be located several hundred miles out. With this in mind, even those dedicated people who enjoy gambling a lot wind up only doing it once every couple of years.

Welcome to the modern times. It appears cyberspace has altered this whole process. Internet casinos are nothing short of a industry-changing concept to the domain of gambling, placing bets, and playing games. Now you can compete blackjack against actual people across the world, and what’s even better is how you can do that in your sleep clothes at 1 o’clock in the morning!

It started out as only a enjoyable way to play a multiplayer game online, but anymore, a handfull of online casinos in reality allow you to place real wagers! This hands you all the rush of playing gambling casino games right on your own computer. You could possibly even go to the e-casino every single day if you so desired!

No matter what you’re into, you can be guaranteed that there is a place that offers it somewhere out there. That’s the reward to there being so many gambling sites on the net: If you get sick of one online casino, you can just move on to the next one!

Getting started is as uncomplicated as stumbling upon a place you like and signing up for it. Some places may require a activation fee, while others simply make their money by taking a percentage of the payment. Either way, an internet gambling site’s reduced operating expense makes it a great option for gratifying the risk taker in all of us.

Sports Betting Revolution – Unlock the Spread Monopoly and Collusion

What If the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous knowledge of each others numbers!

Lets face some facts about this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online and the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or an extra $5 on the money odds. However, everybody will post their number which is the same or within a point of each other. This is the equivalent of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.

How come the Sports Betting Industry has the same price or spread on their betting board? WHY – because nobody wants to rock the boat!

What if this process of establishing a betting line was not a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups that were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.

This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists when the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers that are different from others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody wants to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so they can keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.

The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all the statistics and other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the public will place their money. It is no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the public will be evenly divided.

There are a number of times when the line is not even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. However, when the spread is minus 7 and the favorite wins by 21 points or the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.

If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they would question each others actions after doing the same thing together all these years.

For a true and balanced market to emerge in any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is very close to a more balanced betting market since the competition is against other bettors. The spread is the same but the money odds are much better with more options.

If the Sports Books in Nevada and online books decide to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they will increase their handle and be more competitive. I would install some form of Spread Betting that is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog in the same game.

The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a market share. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This would be a big gamble that could payoff and increase market share. However, it is ironical that sports books do not want to be in the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They are more concerned about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more often.

Promoting or seeing changes in any financial markets is similar to getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a lot of people and businesses. As they say “talk is cheap”. However, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it will create a more vibrant market with better options and more competition within the sports betting community.